Weather...Matthew vs. Camille

Thursday, October 13, 2016

The forecast for today is partly cloudy. It should be mostly sunny, all day. The night will be clear with a Waxing Gibbous lighting up the sky. The high will be 76 degrees. The low will be 47 degrees. There won’t be a lot of wind. It should be fairly warm throughout the day. Today is the warmest day of the week.

In 2015, Louisa County is estimated to have 3.62 inches of rain in October. As of October 12, 2016, Louisa has gotten 2.11 inches of rain. The amount of rainfall that we have gotten may been affected by hurricane Matthew.  This is the 10 day forecast for the week of Oct 16-22nd: Sunday, October 16th, the high is 71F , Monday, 10/17 the high will be 78F, Tuesday, 10/18 the high will be 80F, Wednesday 10/19 the high will be 80F , Thursday 10/20 the high will be 74F , Friday, 10/21 the high will be 72F, and Saturday 10/22 the high will be 68F.

Today, October 13, there is a hurricane in the atlantic ocean on top of Bermuda. The hurricane’s name is Nicole and it is a category 3. The winds of Nicole are expected to reach 125 miles per hour. The storm surge will get up to 6 - 8 feet. The location of hurricane Nicole is at 32.3 N and 64.6 W. The hurricane is moving northeast or 35 degrees at 14 knots which is around 16 miles per hour. The eye of hurricane Nicole was said to be bigger than Bermuda itself. Bermuda may get up to as much as 30 inches of rain today.

Hurricane Matthew was a devastating storm, ripping trees out of the ground and downing power lines in the lower part of the East Coast. Louisa wasn’t hit at all hard compared to the places like Lumber River, North Carolina and Jacksonville, Florida. The total fatality rate from Matthew was 1,027 deaths, and it is presumed  that there will be more bodies found in Haiti, where people are still being found.

Hurricane Camille was third strongest cyclone in 1969. It hit Virginia, dumping 28 inches of rain in only 8 hours. It hit the the entire East Coast, New York recording up to 68 inches of rain. In Virginia, it staked 150 lives and cost millions of dollars in repairs. Flooding slammed Virginia, debris flowing into Nelson county. Camille caused mudslides and major flash floods in  different parts of Nelson county.

Both Camille and Matthew were tragic and devastating, yet Camille was the most catastrophic for our local area.  We had flooding and people who were fatally harmed, as to where in Matthew, we simply had rain. Although Matthew had a higher death total, and more major impact on other states and parts of the word, Camille hit the East Coast in a cataclysmic effect.

GMLT

Stationary Front - Defined

Fronts are boundaries between air masses which are huge piles of air that move as a giant, ameba-like mass - yeah, I know, duh, air mass. Because air masses reflect the part of the planet they form over they are all different, in temperature, pressure and moisture content. As each mass moves it collides with other big piles of air and the zone of their collision is a front and that's where the weather battles rage on the planet (the word front was applied to weather about the time that WWI was being waged along battle fronts…). Usually one air mass has more energy/momentum/push than another and moves into the geography formerly occupied by the different air mass: cold air move in, cold front; warm air moves out cold, warm front.
At some point, all air masses lose their push and are stopped or moved in a new direction by another mass. In the summer, in North America, that stall zone is often the mid-Atlantic and that's what we are stuck in today, a weak, stalled air mass that can't get any farther south than the Mason-Dixon line. North of the line, there are no showers and the weather is fairly cool, dry and pleasant but we are south of the line and in the unstable, interaction zone of a stationary front. If you like the weather you are having today, you probably liked yesterday and will like tomorrow, you like stationary fronts! Most people would not.
Today could be the type section (a geology term used to describe all the rock in a formation, from a single point) for a stationary front: cloudy, humid, chance of rain/drizzle/showers/storms, not a lot of temperature change or wind. Everything is stuck or stalled, STATIONARY! Neither air mass has the push to move the other and until a bigger, badder mass comes in late tomorrow to push it all out of here we are stuck in the swampy mess.
A stationary front in the winter occurs for the same reason as it does in the summer but has even less temp change, usually stuck in the mid-30's - high 36, low 35 - and won't rain or snow and you don't see the sun for several days, gross!
So, what can you do about the gross weather today; nothing! Earth is in charge today and everyday and we will either adapt, migrate or die. Those are the rules, today and everyday on Earth. Get out and enjoy the stationary front, it could be hot, dry and 103.

The Siberian Express - Cold!!

Siberia? How in the world? That's the reality, it's a world, all connected, joined, interactive and the jet stream has taken a big loop to the north and the brutal, frigid, dry air of Siberia is spilling into the east coast of North America, deep, deep into the south lands. The western US continues to be mild and snow/rain free with the big jet loop but not the east coast. It really isn't that far (it's actually the short way) from here to Siberia, just right over the north pole and that's what's happening.  The 50 below air of north Asia has been forced over the pole and there's nothing much to slow it down between here and there.
It was 2 here in central Va. this morning and the sun,  while toasty warm behind the glass of the tirehouse, isn't doing much but bouncing off snow back toward space in the outside world. Temps are likely to stay only in the teens today before dropping down below zero tonight, blowing records up (or down) for this late in February.  The light Siberian breeze outside will keep wind chills dangerously low all day and into tomorrow, likely canceling schools yet again for much of Va.
No doubt, naysayers are writing/typing diatribes, as I type this, claiming this cold is proof global warming is a liberal hoax and we should continue fracking, pipelining, driving, burning, wasting every resource if it can increase the bottom line.  I (you saw this coming) disagree: the global warming predictions forecast an increase in EXTREMES; bigger, not necessarily more storms, bigger temps swings, wilder weather with warming. And, while the science is tricky, tooooooo many variables to predict exactly... ice is melting all over earth (maybe not the east coast today) at an increasing rate.  And, ice melts when things get warm, ice sheets form when it gets and stays cold. That isn't rocket science, a simple change of state of the one substance that rules Earth: water. Warm, melting; cold, freezing.
Today (and tomorrow and Saturday) we'll be in the freeze zone, deep freeze, but the big melt will begin Sunday and while winter has a month left on the calendar the warmth of increasingly direct, longer sunlight will win out and force the winds of Siberia back home.  But, not today! Ventures out onto Earth today require all skin covered, and plans for the many issues that deep cold can bring. So, keep your trips short, put out some bird seed and watch the show, it's nasty cold, today on Earth.

Cool, Damp Start to August

Continuing the cool trend for the summer (year?) of 2014, the eastern seaboard turns the calendar to August with cool temps and lots of moisture.  While parts of Va. were dry for July, my tirehouse in the north central piedmont received 5 inches of rain for the month and as a bonus, had quite a few days start with temperatures in the 50's - the 50's in July!!!  It won't be that cool this weekend but with clouds and all the moisture being pulled up from the gulf and in from the Atlantic daytime highs are likely to remain in the 70's - the summertime version of the polar vortex with the dipping jet stream continues to dominate the east coast.
In the western US, high temps and no rain has pushed historic drought conditions to even more extreme levels raising fire concerns across the region and affecting food prices and soon availability across this country...and around the world; the west coast of the US feeds a large percentage of the planet.  Unfortunately, long term forecasts show little change in the pattern.
But, there will be change, it's Earth and that has been the rule for 4.5 billion years; change happens.  Humans seem to think the change happens on our time scale (quarterly for corporate interests worldwide) but looking at the record written in the rock of the planet, that is not the case.  Earth's weather changes daily but climate trends are on a whole other scale and while we predict and argue and affect the long term trends they continue, Earth doing what it does, today and everyday.  Enjoy todays spin around!!

Tropical Storm Arthur and July Heat

July has come in like expected, hot and stormy!  Arthur has spun itself into a storm off the east coast of Florida and forecasts have it sliding slowly northward up the coast before taking off, pushed off the Outer Banks by a cold front that has been trashing the upper mid-west for several days.  Independence Day may be a little damp and breezy on Hatteras as the storm, likely a hurricane by then, just grazes the barrier islands before rocketing into the open waters of the north Atlantic.  Not a large storm, Arthur will likely only affect coastal regions of the southeast, but bears watching...it will likely have winds of 80-90 mph as it grazes North Carolina.
The humid, oven-like air rising into the mid-Atlantic from the deep south just ahead of the cold front will make for a hot July 2nd.  T'storms are likely this afternoon and even more likely tomorrow but the passage of the front will cool temps back into the 80's for the 4th and weekend.
So...it's officially summertime, the hurricane season has begun and the heat is here!  If you don't like it just remember when it was 2 degrees a few months back and we were all longing for some warmth.  This tilted planet will keep changing, cold, cool, hot, cool, cold, cool, hot...on and on and on and on. Get out and sweat a little and enjoy your ride on this lovely planet, today on Earth.

The Muggies Return

As spring continues to give way to summer, the southern, humid air takes over the mid-Atlantic. A big, storm edged, LOW over the Mississippi valley, cut off from the jet stream, will take it's time getting to the east coast but it will continue to fling moisture rich air from the Gulf into the southlands.  A Bermuda HIGH, over, where else, Bermuda, adds to the southerly flow and the combo guarantees a week of warmth and humidity with a daily shot at thunderstorms in the region.  As the low slides slowly east the T'storm  chances increase for Wednesday and Thursday but could happen any day until Saturday.  Be ready to sweat if you plan on outside activities with little of the cooling evaporation that humans evolved the ability to perspire to gain.  But, temps will only be in the 80's and a little breeze will make it pleasant for those of us that realize to live in Va. is to deal with humidity.
So, get out and sweat a little to finish up what has been a lovely spring, all in all, not to bad, Today on Earth.  If you have the option, stay in the shade, that high sun angle gets warm in hurry but the shade, out of the cooking sun, that air is quite pleasant.

Wild Winter Rages On!!

The fall/winter of 2013/14 continues as a chilly one; low temps and now snow are back in the deep and coastal south. A cold front that slid through Monday just barely cleared the coast before stalling and setting the stage for yesterday and today's mess in the normal warmish regions of the US. With bitter cold air in place and a front for moisture to journey along, a rare southern snow storm was just waiting to happen and happen it did. Schools and businesses are shut down, roads are clogged with snowbound and wrecked cars and southerners are hunkered down with snow depths ranging from an inch or two to close to a foot. And, the cold temps have likely made most of the snow too light and dry and fluffy to get a snowman going. Still, a southern snow, while causing major issues, is a rare and delightful treat in a land where winter usually means putting on a sweater.
The latest Arctic blast will fade by Friday, helping with the melt and we may actually see temps warm enough to produce rain and not snow by Super Bowl Sunday. But, don't forget, southern snow should be enjoyed so get out and play a little, today on Earth.